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Wells Fargo FX Express - Daily

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Magnus Hellberg

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Wells Fargo FX Express^TM - Daily

Market summary and commentary provided by Vassili Serebriakov, Currency Strategist, Wells Fargo Bank.

Market Summary

After the previous week dominated by US economic data, market attention is switching back to European events this week. The European Central Bank is making a policy announcement on Thursday and the majority of analysts expect the Refi rate to remain unchanged. Italian and Spanish bond auctions late in the week will also attract plenty of attention. The euro’s bounce today largely reflects technical factors and short covering after speculative short positions reached record levels last week. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar is feeling the negative impact of a softer than expected retail sales report but other commodity and emerging currencies have started the week with a moderately positive tone. The Swiss franc has seen some volatility after the resignation of the Swiss National Bank Chairman Hildebrand. We expect the Swiss authorities to continue defending the 1.20 floor for the euro-franc exchange rate while maintaining an aggressively accommodative monetary policy for most of 2012. For this week, our bias is for a period of FX market consolidation, with the euro potentially taking a pause from its recent rapid decline.

Regional Highlights

Asia/Pacific

Asian currencies have started the week with a mixed tone. The Australian dollar is down to a one-week low against the greenback as Australia’s November retail sales unexpectedly stalled in November, following four months of gains. The NZ dollar is however gaining as New Zealand’s November trade deficit widened to NZ$308 million generally in line with expectations. The Japanese yen is moderately firmer and emerging Asian currencies are mixed, with the rupee higher but the rupiah lower. In data releases, China’s December M2 money supply growth quickened to 13.6% y/y, while new loans totaled a higher than expected 640.5B renminbi. Taiwan’s December exports slowed to 0.6% y/y.

Europe

The euro is higher in what appears to be primarily a technical bounce as speculative euro shorts reached a new record last week according to the latest IMM data. After today’s meeting between Germany’s Merkel and France’s Sarkozy, the leaders said the EU fiscal pact will be signed by March at the latest and possibly as early as end of January. Eurozone economic data was somewhat mixed. Germany’s November industrial output fell by 0.6% m/m but exports rose by 2.5% m/m, while the Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence rose to -21.1. The Swiss franc is higher against the euro as markets appear to be testing the Swiss National Bank’s commitment to the currency peg after the resignation of central bank Chairman Hildebrand this morning. In Swiss data, the December jobless rate rose to 3.1% while November real retail sales quickened to 1.8% y/y. The British pound and Scandinavian currencies are moderately higher against the greenback. The forint is steady as the government sold a planned amount of debt today and on renewed optimism over negotiations over IMF/EU aid to Hungary. Elsewhere in emerging FX markets, the zloty, lira and koruna are gaining.

Americas

While the start of the week is quiet for US data, a number of Federal Reserve policymakers are scheduled to make comments over the next couple of days. In Canada, November building permits fell by 3.6% m/m, while the Bank of Canada is releasing its Q4 business outlook survey later today. In Mexico, the December CPI unexpectedly quickened to 3.82% y/y. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar are both firmer, although both are outpaced by the Brazilian real which is the strongest regional currency this morning.

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The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily consistent with those of the management of Wells Fargo Bank. Our information is based upon diverse sources that we believe to be reliable, though the information is not guaranteed. Wells Fargo & Co. and its affiliates do not assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon the information or opinions expressed in this publication. Our views and forecasts are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or any foreign exchange transaction, or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo may maintain long or short positions in, and buy and sell, the securities and currencies mentioned in this publication.